Chris' Playoff Outlook

As we enter the final 3 weeks of the regular season, I thought it worthwhile to look into what teams have to play for before our 2nd run of Divisional games. To follow will be a view of who can win each division, who can make playoffs via best record, who can make playoffs as the Highest Points Scorer, and who could be this season’s Johnny.

The North

The North Division is pretty straightforward, the Wigan Wombats and Nottingham Bandits are tied on record, but the Wombats have a strong advantage in terms of the Points For Tiebreaker. Due to all teams having to play one another, there is no way that either the Gateshead Spartans or Lurgan Leopards can win the division, as even a tie between the Wombats and Bandits in week 14 would be enough to separate them from the bottom 2 teams.

The Midlands

The Midlands Division is somewhat of a similar story. The Derby Otters and Cymru Cobras are far enough ahead of the competition that a tie in Week 13 is enough to guarantee one of them the Division Title. The interesting part is that there are less than 10 points separating the 2 teams, so this really should come down to who can win week 13, with the rest of the division really not putting up much of a fight this season.

The South

The South Division really boils down to the age old question, “Is Olly going to choke?”. This is the Oxford Pythons Division to lose. 1 win in the remaining 3 weeks seals the division and the #1 seed going into playoffs and based on the season so far that really should be an issue. Playing the Chippenham Beavers in week 14 should be the game we look to here as the Pythons have scored a massive 490.80 points more than the Beavers this season so far, but will player Bye weeks come around to spoil the Pythons party?

Best Records

As we get into the best record conversation, it feels like our best course of action is to take the overall table and remove our current division leaders from the conversation. This would leave us with the current situation being that the Andover Sandslashers and Nottingham Bandits are our current #4 and #5 Seeds, respectively.

However, this is where the fun begins. Week 14 sees the Sandslashers play the Oxford Seahawks, this could be a final week which decides who does and doesn’t make it. The Seahawks are on a 3-game winning streak and making a great late charge to make it back into playoffs, is momentum on their side as the bandits have slid out of top spot in the north for the first time since week 2, and the Sandslashers seem to be scrambling to find more players after being hit by injuries all season. Don’t count out the Cobras either, they are only 1 game back from the rest of the pack and if they and the Otters run a close race for the Midlands title, the cobras could squeeze into the #5 as they have a current better Points For total than 2 of the 3 teams above them.

Highest Points Scorer

As you will all know, our 6th and final playoff spot goes to the highest remaining points scorer, so let’s see the overall table, without our current playoff spot holders.

As the table shows, the Cobras currently occupy that spot, but this race is close and only getting closer after both the Spartans and Seahawks made up ground on the Cobras this week. 3 weeks remain, and if any of the Spartans, Leopards or Seahawks can make up on average 13 points per week over the Cobras they could claim that 6th spot. The potential cat amongst the pigeons for this one is if the Cobras manage to gain either the Division title (Dropping the Otters with 1130.10 PF) or make it into the #5 seed (Dropping the Bandits with 1115.54 PF) this race can get easier or harder for the chasing pack. If by some catastrophe the Sandslashers dropped into this race, their 1154.54 PF may prove to be insurmountable in such a short timeframe. The Spartans would require a 66.54-point swing and that is a tall ask in 3 weeks.

Johnny

Our Johnny Race is still quite up in the air, 5 possible teams could be taking Johnny home.

The Flitwick Fireflies finally get a mention in this piece as they currently are the one who Johnny is buying drinks for at the bar, but one win in week 13 could change it all. The Fireflies playing the Coventry Eagles in a loser takes home Johnny showdown sounds like the barnstorming finale nobody wants to see, but our three 4-7 teams aren’t out of the woods yet. While 1 win from any of them is enough to save the teams, it is not outside of the realms of possibility that they are caught by both the eagles and fireflies, with the Chippenham Beavers the most at risk as the lowest scorer amongst the runaway pack. One of the Leopards and Spartans will be safe as a result of their season finale showdown in week 14.

Final Thoughts

This has been a very entertaining season to be a part of and as we come to a close, I am glad there is so much still to play for and too many situations to do a full deep dive into. As we near the final week of the season, a full breakdown of each teams’ possibilities will be published so keep your eyes peeled for that. Maybe one day we can live in a world where the Johnny somehow still makes playoffs.